Risk Factors of Readmission in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Establishment of Risk Prediction Model

Guimei ZHANG; Shu CHEN; Yunhua SONG; Yang WU; Hongyuan ZHOU

doi:10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20220830

Volume 43 Issue 8

Jul. 2022

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Article Navigation > Journal of Kunming Medical University > 2022 > 43(8): 184-190

Guimei ZHANG, Shu CHEN, Yunhua SONG, Yang WU, Hongyuan ZHOU. Risk Factors of Readmission in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Establishment of Risk Prediction Model[J]. Journal of Kunming Medical University, 2022, 43(8): 184-190. doi: 10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20220830

Citation:

Guimei ZHANG, Shu CHEN, Yunhua SONG, Yang WU, Hongyuan ZHOU. Risk Factors of Readmission in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Establishment of Risk Prediction Model[J]. Journal of Kunming Medical University, 2022, 43(8): 184-190. doi: 10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20220830

Citation:

Guimei ZHANG, Shu CHEN, Yunhua SONG, Yang WU, Hongyuan ZHOU. Risk Factors of Readmission in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Establishment of Risk Prediction Model[J]. Journal of Kunming Medical University, 2022, 43(8): 184-190. doi: 10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20220830

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Risk Factors of Readmission in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Establishment of Risk Prediction Model

doi: 10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20220830

1.
School of Nursing, Kunming Medical University, Kunming Yunnan 650500
2.
Dept .of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The 1st Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming Yunnan 650500, China

Received Date: 2022-04-19
Publish Date: 2022-08-25

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the risk factors of readmission in patients with AECOPD and develop a disease risk prediction model, aiming to provide an evaluation tool for early identification and screening of patients at high risk of readmission with AECOPD. Methods A total of 414 patients diagnosed with AECOPD in a tertiary hospital in Yunnan Province from January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2021 and met the criteria for inclusion and exclusion were selected as the study subjects. 70% （307） of these patients were included as the modeling group and the remaining 30% （107） patients were included as the validation group. According to whether patients have readmission as an outcome indicator, the risk factors for readmission of patients with AECOPD are analyzed and a disease risk prediction model is constructed. Results Age （OR = 0.958）, nebulized inhaled hormone （OR = 1.893）, predicted value of FEF75 （OR = 0.583）, actual value of FEV1 （OR = 1.947） and combined respiratory failure （OR = 0.501） were included. Prediction model formula: P = 1/{1 + exp [− （3.361 + （−0.043）×age + 0.638×type of inhaled nebulized hormone + （−0.539）×predicted value of FEF₇₅ + 0.666 × actual value of FEV₁ + （−0.691）×respiratory failure）]}. The area under ROC curve （AUC） of the modeling group was 0.777, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.898 and 0.549, respectively. The area under ROC curve （AUC） of the verification group was 0.821, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.857 and 0.7, respectively. Conclusion The risk prediction model for readmission of AECOPD patients established in this study has good predictive efficacy, providing an evaluation tool for early identification and screening of high-risk patients with AECOPD readmission, and provides a reference for medical staff to adjust the treatment and care of high-risk patients.
- AECOPD,
- Readmission,
- Influencing factors,
- Prediction model,
- Nursing care

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References(30)

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