Global Trends and Projections in the Disease Burden of Bipolar Disorder among Adolescents and Young Adults

Yue YUAN; Wan ZHAO; Kebin CHEN; Chenglu ZHOU; Zhanwen LI; Jiabi QIN

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Yue YUAN, Wan ZHAO, Kebin CHEN, Chenglu ZHOU, Zhanwen LI, Jiabi QIN. Global Trends and Projections in the Disease Burden of Bipolar Disorder among Adolescents and Young Adults[J]. Journal of Kunming Medical University.

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Global Trends and Projections in the Disease Burden of Bipolar Disorder among Adolescents and Young Adults

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics，Xiangya School of Public Health，Central South University，Changsha Hunan 410078
2.
School of Public Health，Kunming Medical University，Kunming Yunnan 650500，China

Received Date: 2026-03-05
Available Online: 2026-10-30

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the long-term trends in the disease burden of bipolar disorder among the global population aged 15～39 years from 1990 to 2021 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 （GBD 2021）, and to predict short-term changes up to 2030. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021（GBD 2021), we analyzed the number of incident cases, disability-adjusted life years（DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate（ASIR), and age-standardized DALY rate（ASDR）for bipolar disorder among individuals aged 15～39 years across 204 countries and territories, 21 regions, and areas stratified by sociodemographic index（SDI). Estimated annual percentage changes（EAPCs）were used to assess trends from 1990 to 2021, and an autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）model was applied to project disease burden from 2022 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global incident and DALYs of bipolar disorder increased by 38.12% and 41.51%, respectively, with overall upward trends in ASIR and ASDR. In 2021, the ASIR and ASDR among females were 45.83 per 100, 000 and 143.16 per 100, 000, respectively, higher than those among males （ 42.79 per 100, 000 and 134.40 per 100, 000） . However, ASIR increased more rapidly in males than in females [EAPC = 0.24 （95%CI: 0.22～0.27） vs. 0.11 （95%CI: 0.09～0.14）]. The ASIR was relatively high in the 15～19-year age group （15.55 per 100, 000）, and differences were observed across regions and SDI levels. Projections suggested that global ASIR and ASDR would remain at relatively high levels through 2030, with heterogeneous trends by sex, age group, SDI level, and country. Conclusion The disease burden of bipolar disorder among individuals aged 15～39 years has increased globally, with marked population and regional differences, highlighting the need for early identification and stratified interventions in priority groups.
- Global burden of disease,
- Bipolar disorder,
- Adolescents,
- Young adults,
- Disease burden

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References(23)

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