The Burden and Trends of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to Low Physical Activity Globally and in China，1990—2021

Changyong WU; Zhongkai WANG; Menghan LI; Bingqing ZHANG; Yihua LUO; Yunzhu PENG

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Changyong WU, Zhongkai WANG, Menghan LI, Bingqing ZHANG, Yihua LUO, Yunzhu PENG. The Burden and Trends of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to Low Physical Activity Globally and in China，1990—2021[J]. Journal of Kunming Medical University.

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The Burden and Trends of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to Low Physical Activity Globally and in China，1990—2021

1.
First Department of Cardiology，The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University，Yunnan Kunming 650032
2.
Department of Cardiology，The Affiliated Hospital of Yunnan University，Yunnan Kunming 650021，China

Received Date: 2025-11-26
Available Online: 2026-01-06

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To systematically analyze the burden of ischemic heart disease （IHD） attributable to low physical activity （LPA） globally and in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict its trends up to 2030, thereby providing evidence for formulating relevant healthcare policies. Methods Based on the global burden of disease （GBD） 2021 data, a comprehensive analysis and projection were conducted using Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort （APC） modeling, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort （BAPC） modeling. Results In 2021, the global age-standardized mortality rates （ASMR） and age-standardized DALYs rates （ASDR） for IHD attributable to LPA were 2.88 per 100, 000 and 46.63 per 100, 000, respectively. In China, the corresponding figures were 3.52 per 100, 000 and 46.05 per 100, 000. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a declining trend in global ASMR and ASDR, whereas in China, these rates showed an M-shaped fluctuating rise with significant gender disparities. Similarly, the APC model also indicates a downward trend in the global burden of disease, while China shows a pattern of initial deceleration, followed by an increase, and then a renewed moderation. Moreover, the burden of disease among Chinese males has grown more markedly compared to that among females. Decomposition analysis highlighted population growth and aging as the primary drivers of the disease burden. BAPC model projections suggested that by 2030, China’s disease burden was expected to grow faster than the global average, with the trend being more pronounced among younger male populations. Conclusion The global burden of IHD attributable to LPA is declining. However, in China, due to population growth and aging, the disease burden continues to rise, characterized by a heavier absolute burden among females and a particularly pronounced increasing trend among young males.
- Low physical activity,
- Ischemic heart disease,
- Mortality,
- Disability-adjusted life years,
- Global burden of disease

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